U.S. markets reacted enthusiastically to Trump's victory, but that trade has since moderated. Economist Phil Suttle offers an alternative scenario. His outlook shows that the more aggressively Trump pursues policies such as deportations and tariffs, the more likely the U.S. is to fall into a stagflation scare in the coming years. If immigrants are cut off and workers are deported, the labor force could lose all of its growth momentum, or even shrink. With tariffs, Suttle estimates that economic ...
TD Securities said the latest market reaction following Trump's victory suggested that the market expected a combination of tax cuts and tariffs to push up the Federal Reserve's neutral interest rate. We are changing our forecasts for the Fed because rising inflation will lead to a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. We now expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points each in November, December and January, then pause in March. The Fed will continue to cut rates - pause - cut rates in 2025, and ...
Federal Reserve Goolsby: Don't overreact to a month's worth of data.
On August 3, Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee stressed that the Federal Reserve will not overreact to any economic report and that policymakers will have a lot of data before the Fed's next meeting. Speaking after the release of the weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls report, Goolsbee said that the Fed's job is to figure out the "continuity" of the data and act in a "stable" manner. However, he pointed out that if the restrictive rate remains in place for too long, policymakers must...
The European Central Bank meeting notes that unfavorable data for a single month should not be overreacted.